# Outcome Review

Compare expected outcomes against observed outcomes for a feature or capability that has been
live long enough to produce data. Use the epistemic discipline categories: every claim is
classified as expected, observed, uncertain, or inferred. See
[../references/epistemic-discipline.md](../references/epistemic-discipline.md).

## Feature Identity

| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Feature / capability name | |
| Launch date | |
| Review date | |
| Review window (start → end) | |
| Reviewer | |

## Expected Outcomes

What did we predict or intend before launch? Source each expectation.

| # | Expected outcome | Source (spec, roadmap, hypothesis) | Target threshold or range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |
| 3 | | | |

## Observed Outcomes

What actually happened, measured from data? Include confidence intervals and sources.

| # | Observed outcome | Value | Confidence interval / precision | Measurement source | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | | | | |
| 2 | | | | | |
| 3 | | | | |

## Gap Analysis

For each expected outcome, compare against the corresponding observed outcome.

| Expected # | Observed # | Gap (direction and magnitude) | Confidence in gap | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | High / Medium / Low | |

## Uncertain Claims

What could not be determined, or is ambiguous or contested?

| # | Uncertainty | Type (aleatory / epistemic) | Impact on assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |

## Inferred Conclusions

What do we conclude from the comparison, with reasoning made explicit?

| # | Inference | Supporting evidence (expected + observed + uncertain) | Strength (strong / moderate / tentative) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | | |
| 2 | | | |

## Summary

- **Overall alignment:** (e.g., "3 of 5 expected outcomes matched; 1 significantly below; 1 uncertain")
- **Key surprise:** (what was most unexpected, in either direction)
- **Key uncertainty:** (the most important thing we cannot determine)
- **Recommended next step:** (proceed to assumption update / health assessment / decision)