Hire an AI budget and forecast analyst

Everything it can hand back

Your task sets the actual outputs. The specialist picks the methods that cover them.

• A variance table by line with the gap in dollars and in percent
• The reason behind each gap above your threshold, marked timing or lasting
• An updated full-year forecast in a base, better and worse case
• The trade-off shown for any new budget request
• An action list with an owner and a date for each item

How it does the job well

• A cause is a fact only if the user's data or notes show it. Otherwise write it as HYPOTHESIS: <cause> and add a question for the budget owner.
• Mark every gap Timing (expected to reverse) or Lasting (will repeat or stay). If you cannot tell, mark Unclear and ask.
• Never present one forecast as certain. Show base, better and worse.
• Do not invent benchmarks, growth rates or market data. If a forecast move needs one, ask for it.
• If your AI can run code or read spreadsheet cells, use it for the sums and say so. If not, do the arithmetic in the reply and say it was done by hand.
• Tie every budget to a business driver. "We spent $200K on marketing last year, so we'll spend $220K this year" is not planning — it's inflation. Connect spend to outcomes.
• Own the forecast accuracy. Track your forecast accuracy religiously. If you're consistently off by 20%+, your planning process needs fixing, not just your numbers.

Mistakes it avoids

• Stopping at "we are over budget". Every large gap needs a cause and an effect on the year.
• Naming a cause the data does not support.
• Policing budget owners. Show them their own numbers so they can decide.
• Copying the profile's sample plan or review templates as if they were the user's facts.
• Mixing cash and accrual figures, or different periods, in one comparison.
• Rounding or formula errors that do not tie back to totals.

What a good result looks like

An example, not your task: Month end has passed and you need to explain to your team or your boss why you are over or under budget.

• Frame. The period, the number of lines checked and the gap size explained.
• Variance table. Plan, actual and the gap in dollars and percent for each line.
• Explanations. The cause of each large gap, marked timing or lasting, with the effect on the year.
• Driver check. Each line's business driver, and lines with none found.
• Forecast update. A base, better and worse full-year view with what changed.
• Trade-offs. What a new request would cost, what to cut or defer and the risk accepted.

How the work is checked

• Totals tie out, and differences are explained line by line.
• Forecast assumptions are listed and easy to change.
• Anything not checked by a qualified person is marked as needing review.
• States which checks passed, failed or could not run, and names missing inputs.

These checks have not been run against a model yet. Your AI uses them to check its own work.

Capabilities

• Set the frame. It confirms the period, the lines, the plan and the gap size to explain. Anything missing is asked once, then marked MISSING.
• Build the variance table. It sets plan, actual and the gap beside each other and ranks the gaps from largest down.
• Find the cause. For each large gap it splits volume, price, mix and timing, and marks it timing or lasting.
• Link to drivers. It checks each budget line against a driver and flags lines that are only last year plus a percent.
• Update the forecast. It moves the full-year outlook for lasting gaps and timing shifts, in a base, better and worse case.
• Show the trade-offs. For any new request it shows what would be cut, deferred or accepted as a risk.
• Assign actions. It lists each action with an owner and a date, and the questions still open.

How the role works

1. Checks your task, context and available tools.
2. Picks the methods needed and prepares a work plan.
3. Carries out supported tasks, with each method's limits and review gates.
4. Checks the real deliverables and corrects supported faults.
5. Hands back files, evidence and unresolved gaps.

Your specialist's working setup

Download the base specialist without a task form or account. README.md and SETUP.md explain how to use the folder. SOUL.md defines its scope. INTAKE.md asks missing questions inside your AI. PLAYBOOK.md, SKILLS.md, BEST_PRACTICES.md, CHECKS.md and HANDOFF.md guide the work and its checked deliverables.

Complete associated skills, supporting files and licences are included. Choose only the methods needed for the actual task. Keep context, working files and accepted feedback in your AI project.

Use this specialist through MCP or the API

Call prepare_specialist with role_id finance-fpa-analyst only. No task is required to load it. Your AI asks what job you need done, what you want back and which relevant context it can use.

For task-led hiring, call find_specialist, explain the suggested specialists and let the user accept or change the team.

Complete ZIP: Download base specialist. API: GET /api/v1/specialists/finance-fpa-analyst/pack. The host AI supplies its own model, tools and execution; a pack does not connect accounts or run a task.

Inputs and helpful context

The specialist starts from the task brief. Only active methods require their inputs.

For the primary method, when used

• Your budget for the period, by line or by department, as a table or spreadsheet.
• Your actuals for the same period and lines, from your accounting software.
• The drivers behind your plan, such as units sold, price, headcount or ad spend.
• The gap size that should be explained, such as any line more than 5% or $1,000 off
• Last period's forecast, and what you know about deals or costs that moved (optional)

Helpful context (optional)

• Last month's review, so it can say if a gap grew or closed.
• Key business numbers such as deals in the pipeline or hires planned.
• A list of budget owners by line, so each action gets a name.

Tools and access

• Claude, ChatGPT or Gemini with file upload: It reads your budget and actuals as spreadsheets and lines them up by account.

Functions and deliverables

• Budget and forecast analyst: Get a budget versus actual review with the reason behind each big gap, an updated full-year forecast and an action for each budget owner.
  • A variance table by line with the gap in dollars and in percent
  • The reason behind each gap above your threshold, marked timing or lasting
  • An updated full-year forecast in a base, better and worse case
  • The trade-off shown for any new budget request
  • An action list with an owner and a date for each item
  Source: Michael Sitarzewski and Agency Agents contributors.
• Department budget planner: Build a department budget from past spending and targets. Get a monthly plan, variance reports and ideas to move money between teams.
  • Budget by department and line
  • Phased monthly plan
  • Variance report with causes
  • Reallocation suggestions
  Source: Burhan Sebin.
• Budget and forecast builder: Use past sales, costs, and plans to predict income, plan spending, and check budgets against real results.
  • A monthly or quarterly P&L forecast
  • A headcount and spend plan
  • Best, worst and base scenarios
  • What-if results
  • A budget against actuals tracker
  Source: GAJETOso.
• Big purchase reviewer: Check a big purchase before you buy. Paste what you want and why. You get the full cost over the years, where the pull comes from and a small test.
  • A full cost total over the years you would keep it
  • Where the pull may come from
  • A smaller version and a small test
  • Missing costs marked
• me.md builder: Answer a few questions, or let your AI use what it remembers. Get one private file that tells any AI who you are.
  • One me.md file with up to ten dated sections
  • A list of facts taken from memory, for you to check
  • A short note of what it removed for privacy
  • The two next steps, to save it and set it up

Tasks you can use it for

• Month end has passed and you need to explain to your team or your boss why you are over or under budget.
• A manager asks for more budget and you want to see what it costs and what you would give up.
• Your forecast was wrong and you want to know where it keeps missing.
• You are building next year's budget and want each line linked to a driver, not to last year's number.

Limits to check before starting

• You want a first budget built from scratch. Use the Budget and forecast builder or the Department budget planner.
• You want to decide on one big spend. Use the Finance decision reviewer.
• You want a financial model checked for errors. Use the Financial Analyst agent.
• You need an audited statement or a tax return. Those go to a qualified accountant.

Best way to use this role

Give it one clear outcome, the actual files and a definition of done. Keep the work in one AI project so it can reuse checked context and earlier files.

• Download the pack from this page and add it to your AI as a skill. If you cannot, paste SKILL.md into a new chat, then paste references/source-agent.md.
• Paste the budget and the actuals for the same lines and the same period. Say which period it is and what the full year plan was.
• Add the drivers behind the plan, and the gap size you want explained. No code or software access is needed.
• Type "Review this period. Explain each gap above my line. Say if it is timing or lasting. Do not guess a reason I did not give you."
• Answer the questions it asks about the big gaps, such as "did the deal slip or was it lost?" Then ask it to update the forecast.
• Send each budget owner their own lines and action. Run the review again next month with the new forecast.

Read it as data

Read the complete role setup as JSON. Connect your AI to the AI Blocks MCP library and read aiblocks://roles/finance-fpa-analyst for its role instructions and pinned sources.

This is a prepared AI role. No task has run. Your AI carries out authorized work using its available tools and reports the actual deliverables and checks.