Hire an AI business plan downside and failure-scenario reviewer

Everything it can hand back

Your task sets the actual outputs. The specialist picks the methods that cover them.

• A one-page canvas with every assumption visible
• The strongest case for killing the idea
• Each assumption stress tested at half as good and twice as slow, and a ruin-risk check
• A pre-mortem: the most likely story of failure and what to change now

How it does the job well

• Start from the user problem and the evidence for it, then the solution.
• Write decisions down with the reason and the options you rejected.
• Keep scope small enough to ship and learn. Name what is out of scope.
• Define how success will be measured before building.

Mistakes it avoids

• Treating opinions or one loud request as proven demand.
• Specs that skip edge cases, error states or dependencies.
• Roadmaps with dates but no owners or confidence levels.

What a good result looks like

An example, not your task: You are about to sign a lease, hire or spend savings on a plan.

• One-page canvas. Problem, customers, solution, channels, revenue, costs and advantage, with every assumption marked.
• The case against. The strongest honest case for not doing this, with the fatal flaw if there is one, rivals and why customers will not switch.
• Stress tests. Each assumption tested at half as good and twice as slow, and which ones the plan cannot survive.
• Ruin check. The risks you cannot recover from, how exposed you are, and how to cap the downside.
• Pre-mortem. The most likely story of how the plan failed a year on, and what to change today.
• HAND-BACK SUMMARY. Each step's file, any step not run and why, and every MISSING line in one list.

How the work is checked

• Each step passed its own checks, or the run stopped at the step that failed and says why.
• The steps ran in order, and each one used the result of the one before.
• Nothing was invented to fill a gap. Every gap is a MISSING: line.
• Nothing was sent, published or paid for without a clear yes.
• States which checks passed, failed or could not run, and names missing inputs.

These checks have not been run against a model yet. Your AI uses them to check its own work.

A second opinion

Before it hands back, your AI reviews the draft the way Nassim Nicholas Taleb would. This is a way of reviewing the work. It does not mean they wrote or endorse it.

Capabilities

• Squeeze it onto one page. Puts the plan on a one-page canvas with every assumption marked.
• Argue for killing it. Writes the strongest honest case for not doing this.
• Stress test the assumptions. Tests each assumption at half as good and twice as slow and says which the plan cannot survive.
• Check for ruin. Finds the risks you cannot recover from, in Taleb's manner, and says how to cap the downside.
• Run the pre-mortem. Imagines the plan has failed a year from now, writes the most likely story of why, and says what to change now.

How the role works

1. Checks your task, context and available tools.
2. Picks the methods needed and prepares a work plan.
3. Carries out supported tasks, with each method's limits and review gates.
4. Checks the real deliverables and corrects supported faults.
5. Hands back files, evidence and unresolved gaps.

Your specialist's working setup

Download the base specialist without a task form or account. README.md and SETUP.md explain how to use the folder. SOUL.md defines its scope. INTAKE.md asks missing questions inside your AI. PLAYBOOK.md, SKILLS.md, BEST_PRACTICES.md, CHECKS.md and HANDOFF.md guide the work and its checked deliverables.

Complete associated skills, supporting files and licences are included. Choose only the methods needed for the actual task. Keep context, working files and accepted feedback in your AI project.

Use this specialist through MCP or the API

Call prepare_specialist with role_id stress-test-a-business-plan-before-you-commit-money only. No task is required to load it. Your AI asks what job you need done, what you want back and which relevant context it can use.

For task-led hiring, call find_specialist, explain the suggested specialists and let the user accept or change the team.

Complete ZIP: Download base specialist. API: GET /api/v1/specialists/stress-test-a-business-plan-before-you-commit-money/pack. The host AI supplies its own model, tools and execution; a pack does not connect accounts or run a task.

Inputs and helpful context

The specialist starts from the task brief. Only active methods require their inputs.

For the primary method, when used

• The business plan, however rough
• The numbers behind it: costs, prices, how many customers and when
• What you are putting in: money, time, what you give up
• What you fear most (optional)

Helpful context (optional)

• Your forecast spreadsheet with its inputs
• Contracts with penalties or guarantees
• How a past plan of yours failed

Tools and access

• Any good chat AI: Every step is a plan or a piece of writing.
• A spreadsheet: Change the inputs and watch the plan break or hold.
• Any good chat AI: Listing dependencies and testing plans in text is what any strong chat AI does with this skill.
• A spreadsheet: Handy for putting fixed costs, cash and exposure side by side.

Functions and deliverables

• Business plan downside and failure-scenario reviewer: Share your business plan, assumptions and resource limits. Get a one-page model, case against it, stress scenarios and downside safeguards.
  • A one-page canvas with every assumption visible
  • The strongest case for killing the idea
  • Each assumption stress tested at half as good and twice as slow, and a ruin-risk check
  • A pre-mortem: the most likely story of failure and what to change now
• Lean canvas builder: Turn your business idea into a one-page lean canvas. Get nine boxes filled in, your riskiest guesses and tests to run first.
  • A completed lean canvas
  • Top problems and alternatives
  • A value proposition
  • Assumptions to test first
  Source: Pawel Huryn.
• Business idea killer: Test a business idea before you build it. Get a clear verdict: dead, with the reason, or survived, with the cheapest test left to run.
  • A verdict: dead or survived
  • The kill pattern named, if dead
  • The cheapest remaining test, if survived
  • A row for your kill list
  Source: sickn33.
• Business assumption stress tester: Give it a plan and its key bets. Find which assumptions break first and what to test.
  • The assumption rewritten so it can be tested
  • Evidence that cuts against it
  • A downside case with numbers
  • A hedge or test to run
  Source: Alireza Rezvani.
• Ruin risk stress tester: Check your plan for ruin risk. Paste it in and find the one outcome you could not recover from, plus a version with the downside capped.
  • A list of dependencies and things that could go wrong, with no odds guessed
  • The outcome you could not recover from, listed apart from ordinary losses
  • A capped-downside version of the plan, with the cost of the fix
  • What would make you act early
• Plan risk reviewer: Share a plan. Get possible failure paths, ranked assumptions, weak dependencies and checks to make before committing resources.
  • A list of hidden assumptions
  • Ranked failure reasons
  • Weak dependencies
  • Steps to reduce the biggest risks
  Source: Alireza Rezvani.
• Product context file writer: Share product facts, audience and positioning. Get a reviewed context file that other marketing skills can reference.
  • A product marketing context file
  • A summary of what the file already holds
  • A change log of updates
  • Gaps you still need to fill
  Source: Corey Haines.
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Review a plan’s exposure to shocks using Nassim Taleb’s recorded ideas. Find possible ruin, inspect who bears losses and question a calm record.
  • Your problem worked on the way Nassim Nicholas Taleb would: their questions, their method, their push-back
  • The answer or the work, in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's voice, using their ideas by name
  • Anything that goes beyond their public record, marked
  • One suggested next step

Tasks you can use it for

• You are about to sign a lease, hire or spend savings on a plan.
• Everyone around you likes the plan, which worries you.
• A past plan failed for a reason that was obvious afterwards.

Limits to check before starting

• You have no money, lease or guarantee at stake yet: run a simple test with a few real customers first.
• You only want to check one number, such as break-even in a bad year: use the Bad-year break-even tester.
• You want to know if the idea suits AI rather than whether the business works: use the AI suitability reviewer.

Best way to use this role

Give it one clear outcome, the actual files and a definition of done. Keep the work in one AI project so it can reuse checked context and earlier files.

• Download the handoff pack. It has HANDOFF.md and five skill files, in the order they run: Lean canvas builder, Business idea killer, Business assumption stress tester, Ruin risk stress tester and Plan pre-mortem runner.
• Give the folder to Claude (in Claude Code, or as files in a Claude Project) and say "Follow HANDOFF.md".
• Paste the plan and the numbers. It writes the canvas and the case against.
• Read the stress tests and the ruin risks. Decide which you can remove.
• Read the pre-mortem. Change the plan so that story cannot happen, or decide not to go.

Read it as data

Read the complete role setup as JSON. Connect your AI to the AI Blocks MCP library and read aiblocks://roles/stress-test-a-business-plan-before-you-commit-money for its role instructions and pinned sources.

This is a prepared AI role. No task has run. Your AI carries out authorized work using its available tools and reports the actual deliverables and checks.