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Store revenue forecast builder
Give it past spend, cohorts and a calendar. Get daily new and returning revenue and the target gap.
Store revenue forecast builder is a free AI skill for the job "Track your numbers". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks · Level: advanced · Thinking: high
What it does
Most store forecasts are one number pulled from last year with a growth rate on top. New customers and returning customers do not respond to the same levers, so they need separate models. New revenue follows ad spend and its efficiency. Returning revenue follows the customers you already have and how often they come back. This skill fits a line through daily new-customer efficiency against daily spend, and reads efficiency at the spend you plan. For returning revenue it multiplies each past monthly cohort by its repeat rate at its age. It adds seasonality and the events on your calendar, sized from past launches, promos and emails. The two speakers claim about 10% accuracy for the cohort method, rising to 1 to 2% with seasonality. Those are their claims, so treat the error bars as yours to test.
You give it
- 12 to 36 months of daily ad spend and new-customer revenue
- Monthly cohorts with repeat rates by age
- Returning customer order value
- A calendar of launches, sales and emails
- Your revenue target
You get
- A new-customer forecast from a spend and efficiency curve
- A returning-customer forecast from cohort decay
- Event effects layered on top
- The gap to your target and the actions to close it
Use it when
- You must give your board or team a revenue number for next quarter.
- You are deciding how much to spend to hit a target.
- You want to find out on day 5, not day 22, that you are behind.
How to use it
- Start a chat with the skill. Open it if you added it to your AI, or copy it and paste it in.
- Attach your daily spend and revenue history and your cohort table.
- Paste the calendar of what you plan to launch, discount and send.
- Ask for the spend needed to reach your target, then ask if you can really spend that much.
- Compare daily actuals to the forecast every day.