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Forecast disagreement reviewer
Paste two teams' odds for the same thing. Get the gap, what each side bases it on and a quick sanity estimate.
Forecast disagreement reviewer is a free AI skill for the job "Think it through and decide". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks · Level: advanced · Thinking: high
What it does
When two groups give very different odds for the same event, the usual reaction is to split the difference or to side with the more senior group. Neither tells you which number is right. A big gap is a sign that someone is using different facts or a different method. This skill sets the two numbers side by side and asks each how it was reached and what history it used. It checks both against the record of past cases in the same way, makes a rough estimate with rounded figures, and treats a large gap as a finding. It looks for a warning sign that has been relabelled as a safety margin, and ends by saying who to ask next and what test would settle it.
You give it
- Each side's number for the same event, with their names or roles
- How each side says it got the number
- The past cases or data available (optional)
- What decision depends on the number (optional)
- Your question (optional)
You get
- Both numbers side by side with their basis
- A check of each against the record
- A rough estimate with its steps
- Who to ask next and what test would settle it
Use it when
- Two teams give very different forecasts, risk scores or timelines.
- A report says a risk is tiny while the people doing the work say it is not.
- You have a number and want a sanity check on how it was made.
How to use it
- Start a chat with the skill. Open it if you added it to your AI, or copy it and paste it in.
- Paste both numbers and say what event they are about.
- Add how each side got its number, as best you know.
- Add past cases and counts, even rough ones.
- Take the closing questions to both sides before you decide.