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Monthly assumption evidence review
Give it the beliefs your plan rests on. Each month get the evidence for and against, and what to test next.
Monthly assumption evidence review is a free AI agent for the job "Think it through and decide". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks · Thinking: high
What it does
Every plan rests on a few beliefs: who the buyer is, what they will pay, why they leave, which channel works. Facts that support those beliefs are remembered and repeated. Facts against them are explained away and forgotten by the next meeting. A year later the plan is built on beliefs nobody has tested since the day they were written. This agent keeps the record. For each belief it writes the prediction, the fact that would prove it wrong, a small bet and a date. Each month it logs every fact against first, with its source, then the facts for. When evidence moves it gives a keep, change or stop call and names the next thing to learn. When a belief has had no evidence for three months it asks the hardest questions and says which ones you cannot answer. It flags plainly when the record says otherwise and you…
You give it
- Five to ten beliefs your plan rests on, each in one sentence
- This month's evidence, with where each fact came from (advised)
- Your plan, so a changed belief can be traced to what it holds up (optional)
- The register, once it exists
- Customer words (optional)
- A buyer brief (optional)
You get
- A prediction, a sinking fact, a bet and a date for each belief
- Every fact for and against, logged with its source
- A keep, change or stop call for each belief that moved
- A plain flag for any belief still held against strong evidence
- The hardest questions on a quiet belief, and a learn, borrow, start small or pass plan
- What the record cannot show, and the fact that would settle it
Use it when
- Your plan rests on beliefs about buyers and prices that nobody has tested in a year.
- You keep remembering the evidence for your idea and losing track of the evidence against.
- You want a monthly habit that tells you when a belief has quietly died.
How to use it
- Start a chat with the agent. In Claude Code, add it as a skill or save it in .claude/agents, then give it your beliefs.
- Write each belief in one sentence. On the first run, approve the prediction and the sinking fact for each.
- Each month, paste the new evidence with its source. Include the facts that hurt.
- Read the moved beliefs and the flags. Change the plan yourself where the record says to.
- Run it again on the first Friday of next month, and on any bet's check date.