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Plan failure risk review
Paste a plan. Get every way it fails, ranked, with the guard for each and the ones you cannot guard.
Plan failure risk review is a free AI prompt for the job "Think it through and decide". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks · Thinking: high
What it does
Plans are written by people who want them to work, so they list the steps to success and skip the steps to failure. Charlie Munger's public habit is the reverse: work out how it fails, then do not do that. It sounds obvious. Almost nobody does it before signing. This prompt inverts your plan. It writes the one line that would mean failure, then lists ten to fifteen ways to get there across people, money, outside events, the thing itself and the plan's own goal, pulling from your past plans first. It rates each by how likely and how bad, writes the cheapest guard with a person and a date, and drops guards that cost more than the failure. It names the failures nothing can guard and the early sign of each, asks who gains if the plan stalls, and gives a verdict: go, go with guards first, or do…
You give it
- The plan: what, by when, with what, and what success looks like
- What it depends on (advised)
- What went wrong last time (optional)
- The loss you cannot afford (optional)
You get
- The failure line and ten to fifteen ways to reach it, rated
- A guard with an owner and a date for each
- The unguardable failures with their early signs
- Who gains if it fails, and a verdict
Use it when
- You are about to sign, hire, launch or spend on something you cannot easily undo.
- The plan feels exciting and nobody in the room is arguing against it.
- The last plan like this failed and you want to be sure this one fails differently, if at all.
How to use it
- Copy the prompt, then paste it into Claude, ChatGPT or Gemini with your plan under it.
- Add what the plan depends on and what went wrong before.
- Read UNGUARDABLE first. Decide whether you can live with those.
- Put the guards for ruin-level and high-likelihood failures in place before you start.