AI Blocks › Test an idea before you build it
Prediction and bet planner
Paste a belief you hold. Get what it predicts, what would prove it wrong, a small bet and a date to check.
Prediction and bet planner is a free AI skill for the job "Test an idea before you build it". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks
What it does
Beliefs that cannot be wrong cannot be useful. "Customers like our brand" or "this channel will grow" feel true, and since nothing could disprove them, nobody checks. Putting a stake and a date on a claim forces the question of what you would see if you were wrong. This skill strips the belief down to its simplest form and writes what it predicts. It writes the result that would prove you wrong before you test, sets a small stake and a date, and lists the rival explanations with the one you prefer and why. At the date, it asks you to check and settle openly, and records what changed your mind.
You give it
- The belief, in your own words
- What is at stake if you are right or wrong
- Rival views you have heard (optional)
You get
- The belief in its simplest form
- What it predicts that you could check
- The result that would prove you wrong, written before the test
- A stake, a date and the rival explanations
- A record of what changed your mind, after the date
Use it when
- You hold a strong view about your market and have never tested it.
- Two people in your team disagree and neither can say what would change their mind.
- You want to learn from your own predictions instead of explaining them away afterward.
How to use it
- Start a chat with the skill. Open it if you added it to your AI, or copy it and paste it in.
- Write the belief the way you would say it to a friend.
- Name a stake you would be happy to pay, such as a lunch, a donation or an hour of work.
- Check on the date, settle the bet in public, and bring back what happened.