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Long-shot bet planner
Describe an idea that might fail. Get a small test, a loss cap and a rule for dropping it.
Long-shot bet planner is a free AI skill for the job "Plan your strategy". Give the instructions to an AI assistant that supports the required files and tools, then review its output.
Free · No account · Made by AI Blocks
What it does
Some of the best moves look like bad bets: most will fail, but one win pays for many misses. The risk is spending too much too soon, or keeping an idea alive because you have already put money into it. The way through is to set the loss you can carry before you start, and to test cheaply before you commit. This skill names the bet and what a big win would look like. It writes the odds and payoff honestly and checks the upside is not capped. It sets the most you can lose and still carry on, and gives the bet one owner and a small team on a short build. It says in advance what counts as learning if it fails. Then it lists cheap, low-risk tests, each of which shows how far off your aim is, and sets the measure and decision date.
You give it
- The idea, and what a big win would look like
- What you can afford to lose, in money, time or reputation
- Any plan or results from an earlier step (optional)
- Your question (optional)
You get
- The odds and payoff written down, with a check on the upside
- A loss cap you can survive
- A list of cheap tests, each with what it would show
- A decision date, a measure and a rule for dropping the bet
Use it when
- You have an idea that is exciting but unproven, and you do not know how much to put in.
- A team keeps funding a project because it has already spent so much.
- You want to try something bold without risking the business.
How to use it
- Start a chat with the skill. Open it if you added it to your AI, or copy it and paste it in.
- Describe the idea and say what winning looks like. Give your honest odds.
- Say the most you could lose and still carry on.
- Run the cheap tests in the order given and record the results.
- On the decision date, compare the results with the drop rule and decide.
Workflows that use it
- Decide whether to drop a rule and trial it safely
- Sort decisions by reversibility and fund long shots